Globalisation and increased connectivity in the world economy make it difficult to model and predict how new shocks may spread in this network. The Global Trade Network Simulator (GTNS) is a decision support tool developed from an Agent Based Modelling (ABM) perspective. Its aim is to understand, and generate insights about changing trade patterns, and their impact on GDP growth in the next 20 to 30 years. GTNS enables users to test their what-if scenarios about the future, as well as randomly generating shocks and visualising the impact of these shocks on global trade and GDP growth. GTNS is still under development for the Game Changers Project based at IIASA (International Institute for Advanced Systems Analysis) in Austria. The project focuses on the detection and simulation of extreme events and game changers for member countries such as Finland and Scotland, as well as a number of other organisations and companies.


  1. UgurBilgeSeminar_Flyer_updated_15June2011.pdf
  2. UgurBilgeSeminar_slides_15June2011.pdf